Tuesday, March 27, 2007

FTAR & CRF Updates

I was lucky enough to find some shares of CRF to short, making it a very sizable position in my account. I do also have a sizable cash position in order to secure any future fluctuations that might require margin calls. With a 90+% premium to NAV and 21% distribution rate, this one is a no-brainer. It should be a 2-3 years max before they are forced to change their fixed distribution policy. I just need to be able to outlast the market irrationality and maybe get some voodoo dolls or make burnt offerings to the gods of gloom and doom.

FTAR just announced a $5 Distribution. Considering my buyin price of $4.20, this effectively takes all of my $$ off the table, plus some. If the market rationally prices in this distribution, shares should go back down to $3 ( current mkt $8 - $5 ), resulting in a $60 M market cap for the company. Given that its earning power for the next 2 years should stay the same, I might well be interested in re-investing in a leaner FTAR, no longer bloated from all the cash.

I'm also curious why management has decided to make the distribution now instead of at the end of '08. Possibly... they have some additional cards up their sleeve, such as contract renegotiations or updates to the business plan. This investment has and continues to surpass my expectations.

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