Monday, August 6, 2007

CRF, ALDA, EXPE Updates

I sold my EXPE position and withdrew my tender offer last week after the stock exceeded my $27.50 offer price. I figure a certain 5% within a week is preferable to an uncertain incremental 10% within a month or more. Plus with the turbulent markets I like the optionality of cash in case a bargain presents itself.

Along those lines, I closed out my ALDA position last week for a 4% loss. Including dividends however, my loss is closer to 2% or mostly negligible. My thesis hadn't changed regarding the company, but I wanted to increase positions that looked more attractive.

CRF has been the biggest newsmaker of late. The stock dropped 8% Friday and 10% today. This has done wonders for the portfolio considering it's my largest position (short). Perhaps the shock to credit markets has caused this stock to discontinue its levitation act. This article on SeekingAlpha explains that both CRF and CLM closed loopholes allowing for an arbitrage opportunity where investors could reinvest their "dividends" at NAV, and immediately sell for the inflated market price. At first seeing Renaissance Technologies file major holdings in CRF caused some concern, but I trusted my own reasoning. The game is now over, and volumes have spiked for both stocks as investors flee for the exit.

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